There seem to be only two species of analysts when it comes to China. The first insists—religiously—that China is about to collapse any minute now, as if headlines announcing its disintegration are scheduled for the next fortnight. The second camp swears China is destined to eclipse every economy on Earth, including the United States, and stride into the future as the next global hegemon. Two extremes, no middle ground, both convinced they’ve cracked the cosmic code.
But when you actually look at what has been festering under China’s hood for years, it’s obvious that the “unstoppable superpower” narrative requires a heroic dose of magic mushrooms just to sound remotely plausible. Blindly consuming the CCP’s official statistics probably delivers the same hallucinogenic effect.
Yes, China is damaged—severely, structurally, and in ways no amount of propaganda lacquer can hide. But here’s where most people misjudge the situation: they underestimate the sheer momentum of a mortally wounded economy. These things don’t crumble gracefully overnight. They coast. They grind on. They limp through decades on inertia alone before the curtain finally drops.
And that’s what we’re watching now—a desperate, deeply sick titan staggering forward because it doesn’t know how to stop. It has precious few exits left and even fewer prospects of genuine recovery. Not a rising superpower. Not an imminent implosion. Just a giant in slow, terminal decline, dragging itself through history on borrowed time.