Narcoterrorism, hurting Russia, denying China a foothold in the Caribbean, oil and gas, Cuba—those are the official, theatrical reasons. They sound good on paper and even better in press briefings. But I suspect something else weighed far more heavily in Trump’s decision matrix, something far more consequential and far less discussed.
By demonstrating that an acting president can be removed and a country can be made to behave, Trump put something far bigger into question than Venezuela’s internal politics. He put Venezuela’s debt to China on the table. And that matters.
China has handed out ungodly amounts of debt to all sorts of countries over the last two decades. The terms were never charitable, no matter how often they were marketed as “South–South cooperation.” The collateral was always there: strategic assets, infrastructure choke points, and natural resources. This is not charity. It is supply security. It is leverage. It is a web of dependencies China can pull tight or loosen as it sees fit.
Venezuela is one of the smaller fish in this pond, but it is still instructive. China needs imports—especially oil—and Venezuela sits on obscene amounts of it. Iran is another such case. Again, the pattern repeats: large upfront cash payments, a flood of Chinese projects of dubious quality, and resources pledged as collateral. The supplier country gets short-term relief. China gets long-term control.
Now imagine what happens if other Belt and Road countries, already groaning under Chinese debt, draw the obvious conclusion. That inviting the Americans back into the room might create space. Wiggle room. An escape hatch from China’s grip. That is not just an embarrassment for Beijing. That is collateral at risk. On a massive scale.
That, I suspect, was the real message. Not just to Caracas, but to every capital that signed away its future for quick cash and prefab infrastructure. The lesson was simple and brutal: debt is only as secure as the power willing to enforce it. And that power is no longer uncontested.
