More than ten years ago, I floated the unfashionable notion that Europe might one day become the market maker in the LNG world. The continent has a quietly formidable hand: deep underground storage caverns that swallow gas like geological vaults, a sprawling and mature market, established trading hubs with real liquidity, and pipeline networks that rival the circulatory system of a large mammal. And, most importantly, Europe possesses the rare ability to take in extra LNG cargoes or release them back into the global market almost at will. No other import market can do that. No other region has that combination of flexibility, infrastructure, and strategic leverage.
And now, with Chinese demand faltering, the opportunity may present itself once again — a geopolitical gift-wrapped moment to step into the role Europe was structurally built for. But will it be seized? Of course not. European gas operators long ago discovered the perfect all-purpose excuse for anything they botched over the last twenty years: Russia, and by extension, the war in Ukraine. Why innovate when you can scapegoat? Why become a market bellwether when you can gorge on public subsidies, form a cozy little quasi-cartel, and pretend you’re protecting the public from forces beyond mortal comprehension?Maybe Trump, of all people, accidentally stumbled onto something. Maybe Europe — not the continent but the idea — is simply beyond salvage. A museum piece of what could have been.