Mexico sits right next to some of the richest shale basins in North America—some of them stretch well into its own territory—so lack of resources isn’t the issue. On paper, Mexico could be self-sufficient in oil and gas, maybe even an exporter. But it can’t replicate the U.S. shale boom because it acts like most petrostates: clinging to a national oil company—PEMEX—as a political cash cow, job mill, and symbol of national pride. Letting go of that control is unthinkable. And even if they did privatize the sector, it still wouldn’t fly—because unlike the U.S., where landowners also own the minerals under their feet, in Mexico the subsoil belongs to the state. That means no local incentive to drill, only bureaucratic inertia. Reform? Politically suicidal. So Mexico stays stuck, rich in hydrocarbons and poor in results.
