The Russian problem festers far deeper than most polite analyses ever dare to probe. Much of its oil and gas infrastructure—everything from upstream extraction to the veins of transmission, from the alchemy of refining to the arteries of export—was laid down under the aegis of the Soviet empire. Say what you will about that empire: it was a zombie state, yes, a shambling corpse animated by ideology and fear, but it nevertheless functioned. It produced engineers of the highest class, scientists of formidable caliber, and all the other professional castes required to run something resembling a modern society. They possessed a breadth of capability, not quite as extravagant as that of the West, yet still competent in a way that demands reluctant respect.
But there was always a difference: project planning, costing, and economic rationale were not what they were in the West. Forced labor, political fiat, and a labyrinth of coercive mechanisms made possible projects that no sane cost–benefit analysis would ever have permitted. That hidden subsidy of human misery kept the machinery moving, kept the oil flowing, kept the state—undead though it was—alive.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, all of that hidden cost structure evaporated into hot air. What remained was the infrastructure itself—ageing, corroding, pushed far beyond its intended useful life. Pipes that should have been scrapped decades ago still pulse with oil and gas; refineries built for another century groan on like arthritic giants.
And here lies the unspoken danger: should this decrepit inheritance finally give way, much of it would have to be rebuilt at modern costs. There would be no gulags to absorb the expense, no coerced manpower to conjure steel and stone from nothing. Everything would have to be paid for in hard currency, at global prices, under conditions where oil no longer buys empires but barely props up states. And with today’s oil prices, such redevelopment simply will not fly.Which leaves us with a grim conclusion: these may well be Russia’s last days as an energy exporter, the twilight of its petro-empire. Not with a bang, not with a revolution, but with the slow, inevitable expiration of rusting infrastructure and the bills of modernity finally coming due.
https://alfinnextlevel.wordpress.com/2025/09/30/russia-produces-massive-amounts-of-crude-oil/