Let me add a splash of cold water to the punch bowl.
Yes, the economy will eventually crack. But oil won’t be the assassin. That’s a far more convenient story than the truth.
The developed world is caught in a debt spiral—structural, mathematical, inescapable. Once a system reaches that particular altitude of leverage, there are only two exits: slow erosion or sudden gravity. We might drift another twenty years on fumes and financial cosmetics. Or we might not. Timing is the one variable nobody controls. But the rule is quite simple—the longer the reckoning is postponed, the uglier the debris field.
Now let’s talk about oil.
Brent is hovering around ninety dollars. Up roughly twenty since the unpleasantness with Iran began. Noticeable? Certainly. Catastrophic? Hardly. We’ve seen far more theatrical performances. In 2008, for example, oil flirted with one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel. The world didn’t end then either.
And here’s the little detail most commentators conveniently forget: the dollar itself has lost just over fifty percent of its purchasing power since 2008—officially. Translate that into today’s terms and that $150 spike becomes something closer to $225. Which means today’s $90 oil is the rough equivalent of about $60 back then.
In other words, we are nowhere near historical extremes.
But blaming an economic collapse on a war involving Iran makes for a marvelous narrative. Clean. Dramatic. Politically useful. It allows decision-makers to drape themselves in the robes of crisis management while quietly obscuring years of enthusiastic money printing.
It’s an old trick. Blame the fire on the candle, not the gasoline you’ve been pouring on the floor.
As for the situation in the Strait of Hormuz—it’s unlikely to remain a serious disruption for very long. A week, perhaps, before Iran exhausts the practical means of threatening shipping lanes. After that, the market will remember its arithmetic.
But until then, there will be no shortage of very serious people delivering very serious predictions. Crises are marvelous career opportunities. Nothing makes a man look wise faster than confidently explaining a storm he had nothing to do with.
And believe me—many will be eager to step up to the microphone.