Alright, let’s inject some reality into this discussion.
LNG has lived with a pronounced boom–bust cycle for decades. This is not a bug; it is the operating environment. Inside the industry, people like to dress this up as “buyers’ markets” and “sellers’ markets,” which is just a polite way of saying that purchasing power sloshes back and forth depending on where we are in the cycle.
But LNG is also a long-term business. Once a project takes FID, it is almost guaranteed to live through multiple market swings. Which means contracts have to be balanced enough to survive both feast and famine. Anyone who prices LNG as if today’s conditions will last forever is either naïve or dishonest.
Right now, we are dealing with an overhang created by the China hype. China is wobbling, and with it the demand assumptions that justified a lot of capacity. That is unfortunate for LNG in the short term — but it is also entirely normal. LNG has been here before. Every time the cycle swings back, the industry emerges larger, leaner, and better positioned than before. This time will be no different.
Ironically, the very renewables that were supposed to make gas obsolete will help pull LNG back into favor. Wind and solar are flickery by nature. They do not produce when you need them to, only when they feel like it. That means you need fast, flexible balancing power. And gas is almost perfect for that role.
Which means capacity must be built. And when the renewable frenzy burns itself out — as it is starting to do now — alternatives will be required. Nothing beats gas when it comes to speed from project concept to first power.LNG is fine. Always has been. Just wait.
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/renewables-turn-lng-glut-into-sinkhole-2025-12-26/