Oh boy, how many times has this project been dragged out of the freezer, dusted off, reheated, and presented as the next great breakthrough?
I have honestly lost count.
On paper it looks magnificent. A giant gas pipeline stretching across largely empty territory, connecting resource-rich regions with eager consumers. A grand vision. A mapmaker’s dream. The sort of thing that produces glossy presentations, smiling politicians, and enthusiastic headlines.
Reality, unfortunately, has an unpleasant habit of showing up uninvited.
The first problem is that the route is not nearly as simple as it appears on a map.
Yes, much of it crosses sparsely populated terrain. Desert, scrubland, and vast stretches of seemingly empty space. Looking at an atlas, one might imagine that laying steel pipe through such territory should be relatively straightforward.
But maps have a tendency to omit the inconvenient details.
Nigeria is not merely the starting point. It is also a transit country, and significant portions of the route would pass through regions where energy infrastructure has historically enjoyed a rather complicated relationship with the local population.
For decades, people have drilled holes into oil pipelines to siphon off fuel.
It is dangerous.
It is illegal.
It is remarkably common.
Now imagine introducing a high-pressure natural gas pipeline into that environment.
The average thief is not conducting a detailed engineering assessment before reaching for a drill.
People are people.
They see a pipe.
They see value.
And they attempt to extract it.
With oil, that already creates enough chaos. With natural gas, the consequences can become considerably more dramatic.
And that is before we even arrive at the security issues further north.
The Sahel is not exactly known for being a model of stability.
Armed groups roam large portions of the region. Whether one speaks of Boko Haram or any number of other militant organizations operating across the broader belt of instability stretching through parts of West and Central Africa, the challenge remains the same.
How exactly does one protect thousands of kilometers of steel pipe running through remote territory?
Of course it can be done.
Anything can be done.
The question is always the same: at what price?
Every security measure costs money.
Every patrol costs money.
Every repair costs money.
Every disruption costs money.
And suddenly the supposedly elegant economics begin to look a lot less elegant.
Meanwhile, Nigeria already possesses something that often gets forgotten in these grand pipeline discussions.
It has LNG.
Not theoretical LNG.
Not future LNG.
Actual LNG.
Nigeria is already a significant exporter of liquefied natural gas and has decades of experience operating within that business.
And LNG possesses one overwhelming advantage over giant transcontinental pipeline dreams.
Flexibility.
A cargo can go wherever the money is.
Europe today.
Asia tomorrow.
Latin America next month.
No need to negotiate transit rights through half a continent.
No need to defend thousands of kilometers of infrastructure.
No need to pray that every government along the route remains friendly, stable, and functional for the next forty years.
The molecules simply board a ship and leave.
There is also the little matter of geography.
An LNG cargo departing Nigeria does not have to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz.
It does not depend on Bab el-Mandeb.
It does not need the Suez Canal.
It enters the Atlantic Ocean and heads toward whichever market is willing to pay.
Simple.
Reliable.
Flexible.
And very likely cheaper than constructing, securing, maintaining, and politically managing one of the most ambitious pipeline projects ever conceived on the continent.
Which brings us to the uncomfortable conclusion.
This pipeline makes far more sense as a political project than as a commercial one.
Politicians adore projects that will not be completed during their careers.
Such projects offer all the benefits and none of the accountability.
There are conferences.
There are ceremonies.
There are memorandums of understanding.
There are photographs.
There are speeches.
There are declarations about partnership, vision, sustainability, prosperity, integration, and all the other magical words modern politicians sprinkle over infrastructure proposals like holy water.
What there usually is not, however, is a functioning pipeline.
Perhaps I am wrong.
Perhaps this time will be different.
But after watching this particular idea resurface again and again over the years, I increasingly suspect its primary product is not gas.
Its primary product is publicity.
And that is one commodity the project has already delivered in abundance.