There is a charming little fairy tale circulating in polite conversation: that all those massive green subsidies were bold policy bets. Brave governments investing in the future. Strategic decisions made in the noble pursuit of planetary salvation.
Bets, they say.
No. Those were not bets.
Bets involve risk. Bets involve uncertainty. Bets involve the uncomfortable possibility that the person placing the wager might lose something of their own.
None of that applies here.
What actually happened was something far more mundane and far less heroic. When those subsidy rivers were pushed through parliaments and congresses, a great many backs were scratched along the way. If one were inclined to speculate—and I most certainly am—I would wager that the total lubrication required to pass those policies did not amount to pocket change. We are likely speaking about sums that comfortably live in the many dozens of millions.
Perhaps more.
The entire climate industrial complex has become a magnificent vacuum cleaner for public money. And not even money that taxpayers have already contributed. Much of it does not yet exist in any meaningful sense. Governments have conjured it out of thin air with the same casual ease a magician produces rabbits from a hat.
Debt today. Inflation tomorrow.
That bill will not be settled quickly. The liabilities accumulating beneath these policies are enormous. It will likely take more than a decade of stubbornly high, double-digit inflation to quietly erode them into something politically survivable.
But the politicians responsible for this arrangement are not losing sleep over the long-term accounting.
Why would they?
Their objective was never fiscal hygiene. Their objective was political survival. They managed to placate a large and very loud segment of voters who have wrapped their identities around a peculiar form of environmental absolutism—a movement that increasingly resembles a secular death cult rather than a rational policy debate.
Tell those voters what they want to hear. Open the subsidy taps. Smile for the cameras. Collect the applause.
Expecting honesty from politicians in this arrangement is a little like expecting a potato to perform a step-dance.
It simply does not happen.
And even if it did happen, it would look utterly ridiculous.
The dynamic resembles every classic financial mania humanity has ever produced. Early participants make fortunes. Those who arrive late stare at the same opportunity and assume the party will continue forever. They pile in enthusiastically, convinced they too will walk away with pockets full of gold.
That is the oldest trick in the Ponzi playbook.
The first movers strike it rich. The latecomers end up holding the bag—and when the music stops, they discover the bag is filled with something far less pleasant than money.
Now, to be clear, I am not referring to ordinary citizens, taxpayers, or voters when I speak about those left holding the bag. Those people never had a seat at the table in the first place. Their role was always limited to financing the banquet.
The real latecomers are the project promoters.
They watched the early pioneers of subsidy harvesting become fabulously wealthy on government largesse. Wind farms, solar parks, hydrogen dreams, carbon markets—everywhere there were headlines of fortunes made with the help of generous public treasuries. Naturally, they wanted their slice of the pie.
Who wouldn’t?
But bubbles have an inconvenient habit of deflating precisely when the largest number of people finally decide to participate. By the time the later entrants begin assembling their spreadsheets and investor decks, the arithmetic has already turned hostile.
The subsidies shrink. The political mood shifts. Interest rates rise. Supply chains become expensive. Suddenly the projects that looked like guaranteed jackpots begin to resemble financial sinkholes.
And something even more dangerous begins to happen.
Voters start paying attention.
They notice their electricity bills rising. They notice taxes creeping upward. They notice the endless parade of announcements about billions spent on projects that somehow never deliver the promised miracles.
Eventually, the smell reaches them.
Once voters have sniffed the bag and realized what is inside, their enthusiasm disappears with astonishing speed. Nothing is more politically toxic than the realization that one has been financing someone else’s gold rush.
Winning back that trust will not be easy.
In fact, it may prove impossible.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/03/01/bad-bets-massive-ev-subsidies-not-paying-off/